They don't address terrorism, insurgent groups or groups like mercenaries. Who pays them? Right now, Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar are outnumbered when it comes to armor the first Leopard tanks donated by Poland arrived in Ukraine on Friday but the last two weeks have shown its mines are enough to hold back Russian tanks, at least for now. But it is relentless, and theres still a lot of force to be applied., As Russias Military Stumbles, Its Adversaries Take Note, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. He was American. MCFATE: I talked to people on the inside. WebHow outdated is the Russian military? NPR's Michel Martin speaks to Sean McFate, author of "The New Rules of War," about Russia's military tactics in Ukraine. The extension of Russian prosecution efforts and Armenian cooperation are both significant events, though it is noteworthy that Russia and Armenia have an existing extradition treaty. A Saint Petersburg local news source reported that a graduate student faces criminal charges for breaking a window at the Vyborg Raion, Saint Petersburg military registration and enlistment office, and painting anti-war slogans in the office on February 26. [42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [45]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [46]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/ ;https://suspilnedot media/398990-armia-rf-obstrilue-okupovani-naseleni-punkti-hersonsini-sob-vipravdati-svou-vtecu-gumenuk/. Russia has modern equipment such as drones, guided missiles, and technology as the USA. Russia at the moment, are depleting their older Soviet era ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update. Russian authorities appear to be escalating their promotion of false flag information operations to distract from their lack of tangible battlefield gains and slow down the provision of Western tanks and other aid in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. relying on tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th With a range of around 600 miles, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon. Sean McFate, thanks so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. [79]Neither Belarusian nor Russian authorities have commented on the reported attack as of this publication. Others have reportedly been found knocking on village doors for food or, in one case, asking a local police station for fuel. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. The Tu-22M3 bomber was put down away Russias disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russias military from its Soviet-era peak. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. But this doesnt mean they will win in the long run. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. Potemkin military.. [80], Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. [57]Russia reportedly loses 150 tanks a month in Ukraine while Russias sole tank production factory, UralVagonZavod, produces 20 tanks a month. Russias military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraines. Deutsche Wellereported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. Therefore, large troop-transport planes tried to land, even though the airport hadnt been completely secured and Ukrainian air defense systems hadnt been destroyed. That would be akin to assuming that the specific problems of the US's conscription-based Army during the Vietnam War, like the practice of "fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, are the same as those of the US's volunteer military today. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. [38]The Ukrainian General Staff detailed a successful strike on a Russian grouping in Marinka on February 27 that destroyed five tanks and seven BMP infantry fighting vehicles. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. Get the latest in military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. [56]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr [57]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [58]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [59]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [60]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [61]https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910, [63]https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. One reason for this is that junior officers are not allowed to take initiative. General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. The new Russian playbook keeps tanks and infantry outside direct-fire range until the big guns and rockets have done most of the killing. Is there any - just what's your take on that? Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraines military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. [29], Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas), Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. The Russian government has found Wagner and other private military companies to be useful as a way to extend its influence overseas without the visibility and intrusiveness of state military forces. Groups are working to de-mine those areas to make them safe for civilians. All this aside, it is still possibleeven likelythat, if the fighting goes on much longer, the Russians will overtake the Ukrainians,capture Kyiv, and possibly oust the current government. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. This is deliberate; its part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. After days of miscalculation about Ukraines resolve to fight, Russian forces are turning toward an old pattern of opening fire on cities and mounting sieges. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. It isnt a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. ), Damage to the Russian Aerospace Forces Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control plane at the Machulishchi Air Base in Minsk, Belarus, remains unclear as of February 28. It's true a significant chunk of Russia's army is made up of conscripts who are paid a pittance (2,000 rubles, ie. https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. They don't address non-state actors. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. All rights reserved. Russia's Army is primarily made up of poorly trained conscripts. [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. In 1999, Putin dispatched Russia's military to occupy Chechnya again. Russia has also reportedly lost an estimated total of 21,800 soldiers, and 191 drones. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. MARTIN: Who are these people? [65], Some Russians continue limited resistance to the war in Ukraine. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. And the Russians, mercenaries and the troll factory work hand in hand. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. Thanks for signing up! You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. Even if they dont, the officials say a frustrated Mr. Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been Gen. Rauno Sirk, in an interview with a local newspaper, was even more blunt in his assessment of the Russian air force. Using revised urban-warfare tactics, it methodically leveled Grozny then weathered nearly a decade of violent insurgency to crush surviving rebels. Putin seems to be following a manual out of the last century, not this one. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? [49]Humenyuk reported that Ukrainian forces do not shell residential areas or critical infrastructure in southern Ukraine and strike Russian forces ensuring that local residents will not be affected. Send me updates about Slate special offers. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. #Ukraine #Vuhledar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/bIqWpLpcnZ. [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. A Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and may be preparing to withdraw from positions closer to the Dnipro River on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast. Russias military leadership, with Gen. Valery Gerasimov at the top, is far too centralized; lieutenants must ask him for permission even on small matters, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. Their caution partly explains why they still dont have air superiority over all of Ukraine, for example, American officials said. Furthermore, inadequate financing and military-industrial deficiencies have resulted in years of delays even for prominent projects like the Su-57 stealth fighter, T-14 Armata tank, and S-500 air defense system. Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. Sean McFate, welcome. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 28 that Russian officials are open to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine but that Ukraine and the West must recognize new territorial realities associated with Russias illegal annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine. At least a few didnt even know that they were in Ukrainethey thought they were still doing exercises in Belarus. The barrage was the most intense attack [7]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [8]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597, [9]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597. But a dissection of the Russian militarys performance so far, compiled from interviews with two dozen American, NATO and Ukrainian officials, paints a portrait of young, inexperienced conscripted soldiers who have not been empowered to make on-the-spot decisions, and a noncommissioned officer corps that isnt allowed to make decisions either. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. most of it. It's unlikely. [68]Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on May 15. [26]Geolocated footage published on February 27 showed two Russian tanks firing at Ukrainian positions west of Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna) indicating limited Russian advances. [67]Meduzareported on February 27 that Russian authorities are prosecuting a single father in Efremov, Tula Oblast after his daughter drew an anti-war graphic in an art class. Have they proved reliable in the past? Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. You've written extensively about these groups. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. That information campaign centering on Russias openness to negotiations aimed to prompt Western officials to offer preemptive concessions and coerce Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms and likely contributed to the delay in the provision of Western tanks and other equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives. While procuring new aircraft, the VKS retired over a thousand [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Many of the more than 150,000 largely conscripted troops that Moscow has deployed across Ukraine have been bogged down north of Kyiv, the capital. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. 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